Even a close second would buoy Santorum by further solidifying his hold on the country’s heartland, Heaney said.
Santorum won in Iowa, Missouri, and Minnesota, and a win in Michigan would strengthen his position in neighboring Ohio, one of the jewels of Super Tuesday.
In addition, doing well in a general-election swing state such as Michigan would inoculate Santorum from charges that he can win only states with a very conservative Republican base. He also posted an upset win over Romney two weeks ago in Colorado, which is thought to be up for grabs in the fall.
Romney’s campaign workers sense the stakes. As they have flooded the airwaves with ads and flaunted the endorsement of Michigan governor Rick Snyder, a super PAC supporting Romney has pummeled Santorum with $2.4 million in commercials this month, according to the Sunlight Foundation, a campaign finance watchdog group.
That amount, from Restore Our Future, doubles the amount spent by Red, White, and Blue, a super PAC supporting Santorum.
As in Florida, Romney’s surrogates have been showing up at Santorum events to offer a bit of counterprogramming.